Major Quakes, tsunamis predicted

April 10, 2005

EARTH faces a one in three chance of being hit by an earthquake big enough to destroy a major city.

There is an even bigger chance of a giant tsunami during the same period, a conference for Australian re-insurers has been told by natural disasters expert Bill McGuire.

Prof McGuire, chief of London's Benfield Hazard Research Centre, sits on the Natural Hazard Working Group, which was set up by the British Government in the wake of the Boxing Day tsunami.

Prof McGuire has produced a sobering analysis of the likelihood of various major disasters in future years.

The research comes as rescue workers and villagers continue to remove bodies from the rubble of last month's devastating Indonesian earthquake.

Up to 2000 people are feared to have perished when the 8.7-magnitude quake rocked the islands of Nias and Simeulue.

Prof McGuire, acknowledged as a leader in his field, says that there is:

A 35 per cent chance of a global-reach earthquake, which would devastate a major city, kill hundreds of thousands and have worldwide economic implications.

A 35-70 per cent likelihood of a tsunami due to a major submarine earthquake - similar to the Boxing Day tsunami that left about 300,000 people dead or missing.

A 7 per cent possibility of a volcanic eruption big enough to change Earth's climate.

A less than 0.7 per cent (about one in 150) chance of a mega tsunami triggered by a coastal or submarine landslide, destroying several cities and killing tens of millions of people.

A less than 0.15 per cent (one in 666) likelihood of a volcanic super-eruption powerful enough to wipe out entire countries and plunge survivors into a global nuclear-style winter for several years.

A 0.14 per cent (one in 714) chance of a 200m-wide asteroid colliding with Earth, causing widespread devastation.

A 0.01 per cent (one in 10,000) chance of a 1km-wide asteroid hitting our planet, wiping out up to a quarter of the world's population.

An earthquake similar in size and impact to the big 1923 Tokyo earthquake could kill more than 200,000 people and cost $4000 billion.

Prof McGuire stressed the high possibility that another devastating tsunami could hit somewhere in the globe in the next 70 years.

Countries could no longer bury their heads in the sand, he said, while outlining the risks of major disasters to the reinsurance conference this week.

"The Indian Ocean countries knew they had a tsunami threat, but because it only happens every 100 to 200 years they decided not to spend money on it," Prof McGuire said.

"That was a ridiculous decision."

There is also  considered to be a real threat of a 1km-wide asteroid colliding with Earth.

Then, there will be a one in 300 chance of "object 1950DA" colliding with Earth, it is predicted - unless action can be taken.

If it did hit the planet, it would obliterate a land mass the size of Victoria or Japan and kill millions of people.

But Prof McGuire predicted scientists would have devised a way to divert dangerous asteroids by then.

The Natural Hazard Working Group is looking to form a multi-government panel to make a detailed assessment of threats throughout the world and plan responses.

SOURCE: Chris Tinkler